The September resolution trap: why stated intentions don't survive
September acts like a second New Year: a temporal landmark that sets off a surge of resolutions, from gym sign-ups to new routines. The fresh start effect (Dai, Milkman and Riis, 2014) explains the surge; the intention-behavior gap (Sheeran and Webb, 2016) explains the collapse. Most people who intend to change do not, the 'inclined abstainers', and it is friction and a lack of planning, not a lack of intent, that decides. For research, the lesson is direct: a stated intention measured at a fresh-start moment overstates future behaviour, so ask what removes the friction, not only what people plan to do.
Lydia Bellahouel
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